Confidential Investment Analysis · Summit Operations Group LLC · April 2026

Bubble Laundromat

6174 Arlington Blvd, Falls Church VA 22044 — Willston Centre I (Regency Centers) — Suite 5 + 6, 4,576 SF

Investment range

$1.3–1.5M

Without $183K TI

Machine plan

44 + 44

Electrolux washers + dryers

Avg vend (confirmed)

$7.82

Current Bubbles pricing

Break-even turns

4.3 / day

Bank 9% / 4.0 PJ 7.99%

Current store turns

~3.3 / day

Confirmed: 34 washers, winter

Industry avg turns

3–5 / day

CLA: 5 avg, 3 typical floor

⚠ Confidential · For authorized recipients only · Do not distribute

The investment case in 60 seconds

Is this deal worth $1.3–1.5M?

We compare our deal against national industry data, the DMV market, and Falls Church / Manassas benchmarks to answer honestly.

What makes this site exceptional

50% renter rate in ZIP 22044 vs. 35% national. Old housing stock, no in-unit W/D.

30% Hispanic/Latino — highest per-capita laundromat user demographic, 3× state avg.

784,280 annual center visits — Willston Centre I foot traffic, Regency REIT anchor.

$284,800 in concessions won from Regency: $183K TI + $101K abatement.

Why $1.3–1.5M is a premium investment

National avg new laundromat: $200K–$500K. We're 3× typical — justified by size, market, and equipment grade.

44 machines vs. 20–30 national avg. Electrolux commercial at $9–20K/unit vs. $2–5K typical.

$40/SF NoVA rent vs. $18–28 in Manassas. Premium location = premium cost + premium revenue potential.

4.3T break-even is above the national typical of 3T. Requires real execution and WDF from Day 1.

The honest verdict (details inside)

The location is industry-tier 1. Demographics, density, and foot traffic are among the best possible for a NoVA laundromat.

Current store underperforms at ~2.9T (below even national avg of 3–5T) due to cash-only, Wascomat machines, and weak service.

Y4–5 ROI is strong (20–35% unlevered, matching industry top performers) IF WDF runs from Day 1 and card payments convert volume.

Kevin Cheung contingency is the single binary risk — verify lease status before committing capital.

Forensic analysis

Current Store — Bubble Laundromat (Kevin Cheung)

Suite 5 only, 2,751 SF — Wascomat W-series machines, cash-only, gas dryers — Verified from actual utility bills (April 2026)

Space

2,751 SF

Suite 5 only (we add 1,825 SF)

Rating

3.7 ★

67 reviews (mixed)

Payment

Cash only

ATM on site, $2 fee

Estimated turns/day

~2.9T

Revised from water bill analysis

Current machine fleet — Wascomat W-series (non-HE conventional)

Model	Capacity	Est. Qty	Gal/Cycle	Age	HE?
Wascomat W75	18 lb	~10	35 gal (5 fills × 7 gal)	10–20+ yrs	No
Wascomat W105	25 lb	~15	50 gal (5 fills × 10 gal)	10–20+ yrs	No
Wascomat W125	35 lb	~10	70 gal (5 fills × 14 gal)	10–20+ yrs	No
Wascomat W185	50 lb	~5	100 gal (5 fills × 20 gal)	10–20+ yrs	No
~40 washers total		—	~55 gal avg	—	Non-HE

Why the water bill ≠ high turns

Non-HE machines have NO load sensing — every cycle fills to the same level regardless of load size. Wascomat W-series fill 5 times per cycle at fixed pressure. At ~55 gal/cycle avg vs. 22 gal for our new Electrolux: the same water volume implies 2.5× fewer turns than previously assumed.

Utility bills decoded — actual Kevin Cheung bills (April 2026)

Fairfax Water Q4 2025 (90 days)557,000 gallons

Daily usage6,189 gal/day

Confirmed: 34 op. washers / 55.4 gal avg / cycle3.28T/day (winter) ✓

WDF contribution (200 lbs/day)+~12% of water use

Confirmed self-service turns (winter)~3.28T/day — revised up from est. 2.9T

Washington Gas (annual est.)~$15,000/yr

Dominion Energy (annual)~$11,900/yr (64.7K kWh)

Water + Sewer (annual)~$31,000/yr

Total utilities verified~$57,900/yr

Plumbing leak risk — must verify

A 1 gal/min continuous leak adds ~1,440 gal/day (~23% of Kevin's usage). Request all 4 quarterly bills, take your own meter readings at open/close for 5 consecutive days, and hire a plumber to inspect before closing.

What the reviews actually say — 67 Google reviews, 3.7★

STRONGLY POSITIVE

"This place — specifically the wash and fold service — has changed my life." (pattern across 21 reviews)

"Friendly attendants" — mentioned in ~15 reviews

"Convenient location" — Willston Centre I is clearly well-positioned

MIXED / OPERATIONAL

"Packed on weekends, wide open weekdays" — confirms demand concentration

"Cash only — ATM charges $2" — mentioned in 5 reviews

"Machines can be old/unreliable" — equipment age showing

NEGATIVE SIGNALS

"Whites came back dingy" — old machine performance issue

"No card/mobile payment" — losing customers

"Inconsistent staffing quality" — management gap

The investment opportunity in one sentence

Kevin's store proves the location and WDF demand are real — but cash-only payments, non-HE Wascomat machines, and inconsistent service are leaving 30–40% of revenue on the table. These are all fixable on Day 1.

Market analysis

Demographic Deep Dive — Falls Church vs. Manassas vs. DMV

Three-way comparison: our target ZIP 22044, the Manassas market, and the broader Northern Virginia / DMV region — against national laundromat demand indicators

Indicator

National avg

Manassas VA

Our ZIP 22044

Population

—

~43,000

~14,000

Renter-occupied HH

35%

~40%

50% ▲

Multi-family housing

~40%

~45%

64% ▲

Hispanic / Latino pop.

~19%

~55% ▲

30–33% ▲

Foreign-born residents

~14%

~35%

36% ▲

Housing stock pre-1970

~25%

~20%

~82% ▲▲

Median household income

$78,538

~$62,000 ▼

$101,034 ▲

Poverty rate

~12%

~8%

~14% (mixed)

Avg household size

2.53

~3.2 ▲

2.6

Median gross rent

~$1,200/mo

~$1,350/mo

$1,745/mo ▲

Walk Score

~50 (suburban)

~55

90 ▲▲

Laundromat density

1 per 5K renters

~8 in city (served)

0 modern in ZIP ▲

▲ Falls Church 22044 advantage

Renter density

Excellent

Pre-1970 stock

82% — rare

9.5

Hispanic demand

30–33%

Income support

$101K HHI

8.5

Walk score

90/100

Competition gap

No modern in ZIP

8.5

Overall site score★ 4.5 / 5

Manassas comparison — why Falls Church wins

Renter density

Moderate

5.5

Pre-1970 stock

~20%

3.5

Hispanic demand

~55% (higher)

Income support

$62K HHI

4.5

Walk score

~55/100

Competition gap

8 mats in city

Overall site score★ 3.0 / 5

Development pipeline — future demand tailwind

Cavalier Club expansion (Wilson Blvd)+250 units

BoS vote May 5, 2026Pending

Eakin Properties (Arlington Blvd @ 7 Corners)+450 units

Rezoning filed Dec 2025Pending

West Falls (W. Falls Church Metro)+400 units

First tenants Sept 2024Active

⚡ 700+ new units within 0.5 mile if Cavalier + Eakin approved

These are renters, arriving at a location where we hold exclusivity. Demand tailwind for years 3–10.

Competitive landscape

All Competitors Within 3 Miles

Detailed analysis of every laundromat serving the Seven Corners / Falls Church 22044 catchment area

Competitor map — within 3 miles of 6174 Arlington Blvd

Name	Address	Dist.	Rating	Reviews	Payment	WDF	WDF rate	Hours	Threat
Bubble Laundromat (TARGET)	6174 Arlington Blvd, 22044	0 mi	★★★☆☆ 3.7	67	Cash only	Yes	$1.50/lb	6a–10p	Replacing
Golden Swan Cleaning Center	3009 Patrick Henry Dr	0.7 mi	★★★★★ 5.0	15	Unknown	Yes	Organic	Limited	Niche
Seven Corners Laundromat	6333 Leesburg Pike, 22044	1.2 mi	★★☆☆☆ 3.0	3	Coin only	No	—	7a–11p	High
Best Laundromat	6610 Arlington Blvd, 22042	1.5 mi	Low	<10	Unknown	No	—	24 hrs	Low
Laundry World Inc	3039 Graham Rd, 22042	2.5 mi	Positive	~20	Mix	Partial	~$1.50	24 hrs	Medium
Clean All Laundromat	5150 Wilson Blvd	2.5 mi	Avg	<20	Unknown	Yes	$1.79/lb	Standard	Medium
Falls Church City Laundromat	420 S Washington St	2.5 mi	Avg	~15	Coin	No	—	Standard	Low
Surf 'N' Suds Laundromat	5715 Columbia Pike, 22041	~2.0 mi	Limited data	20	Card + cash	Yes	Yes (WDF)	24 hrs	Medium
SuperSuds ★ Chain — strongest rival	5865 Columbia Pike, 22041	~2.3 mi	★★★★☆ 4.6	112	Card + cash	Yes	Drop-off + curbside	7a–11p	Strongest
Bubbly Bubbles	2845 Gallows Rd, 22042	3.0 mi	★★★★☆ 4.2	44	Card + coin	Yes	$1.60/lb	Extended	Medium

What the competition is NOT doing (our gap to fill)

GapNo modern card-payment laundromat in ZIP 22044. Seven Corners Laundrymat has been coin-only for 23 years. We own this day one.

GapNo large-capacity machines (65+ lb) in the immediate area. Families washing comforters, bedding, work uniforms must drive 3+ miles.

GapNo Spanish-language service positioning in the ZIP. 30-33% Hispanic population is systematically underserved.

GapWDF pickup & delivery. Only Bubbly Bubbles (3 mi away) offers this. 129K workers within 3 miles = WDF delivery market.

Rating & service gap vs. Bubbly Bubbles (our strongest competitor)

SuperSuds (4.6★, 112 reviews) at ~2.3 miles — the competitor we must take seriously

A 22-location Virginia chain with card payment, WDF, curbside pickup, and modern facilities. This is not a coin-op incumbent — it's a professional operator. However, it's on Columbia Pike, a different corridor, and not walkable from our core housing catchment. Our advantage: closer proximity to Seven Corners Apts + Patrick Henry Apts, larger machine format (85 lb washers), and Willston Centre I foot traffic that SuperSuds doesn't have.

Research — CLA, IBISWorld, BizBuySell 2024–2025

Industry Benchmarks — What the Data Says Nationally

Sourced from Coin Laundry Association (CLA), IBISWorld (2026), BizBuySell sold comps, and industry research reports

US laundromats

~18K–30K

Estimates vary; CLA: declining 0.5%/yr

Industry revenue (2024)

$6.8B

IBISWorld; growing at 1.6% CAGR

5-yr success rate

94–95%

Highest of any small business category

Avg NOI margin

20–35%

BizBuySell: earnings margin rose to 38% (2022–23)

KPI

National typical

Urban/Dense market

Our target (4.5T)

Turns per day

3–5 avg (CLA: 5 avg; 3 typical)

4–6 typical

4.5T target (break-even 4.3T)

Revenue per machine/mo

$800–$1,500

$1,200–$2,000

~$1,498 at 4.5T ($7.82 × 4.5 × ~30 days)

Revenue per SF / yr

$33–$81 (avg store)

$52–$131 (urban)

$173/SF at 4.5T ($791K ÷ 4,576 SF)

Dryer income ratio

40–60% of washers

40–50%

40% (conservative)

Rent % of revenue

15–25%

20–30%

31% at 4.5T — high, needs 5.0T to normalize

Utilities % of revenue

8–12% (Lendio: 20–24%)

10–14%

9.9% at 4.5T ($78K ÷ $791K)

Labor % of revenue

20–30%

25–35%

~17% excl. WDF labor (manageable)

NOI margin (before debt)

20–35%

25–40%

26.8% at 4.5T ($212K ÷ $791K)

Annual cash flow range

$15K–$300K/yr

$50K–$500K

$44K (4.5T no WDF) to $194K (5.5T)

Valuation multiple

3–5× NOI

4–6× NOI

At 5.0T NOI $286K → value $1.1M–$1.7M

Typical store size

2,170 SF avg (CLA 2014)

2,000–4,000 SF

4,576 SF — 2.1× national avg

Typical machine count

20–40 machines

25–50

44 washers — top of range

Avg vend price (wash)

$2.00–$4.00

$3.00–$6.00

$7.82 avg — justified by machine size mix

87% of customers within

1 mile (CLA)

1 mile

1,558 apt units within 0.75 mi ✓

Typical payback period

3–7 years

3–5 years

~5–7 yrs at 4.5T (no WDF); 4–5 with WDF

Key finding: Our vend price at $7.82 looks high vs. national $2–4 but is fully explained by machine size

National averages reflect small 18–25 lb toploaders at $2–3/wash. Our mix centers on 45–85 lb front-loaders. A 45 lb commercial front-loader at $6.75 is standard for its capacity class. The $7.82 weighted average reflects the correct price for this equipment tier in a NoVA income market. WDF at $1.75/lb is market rate (vs. $1.60 at Bubbly Bubbles, $1.79 at Clean All).

Is $1.3–1.5M justified?

Our Investment vs. Market Context

What does a laundromat typically cost in Falls Church, Manassas, and the DMV? Is our $1.3–1.5M (pre-TI) reasonable or excessive?

National typical new-build laundromat

Total startup range$200K–$500K

Equipment (20–30 machines)$60K–$300K

Build-out / renovation$50K–$200K

Card systems$40K–$80K

Permits + WC$20K–$50K

Store size~2,170 SF avg

Cost per SF$90–$230/SF

NoVA / DMV mid-size modern laundromat

Typical total (DMV premium)$400K–$800K

Equipment (25–35 machines)$150K–$350K

NoVA build-out (construction costs higher)$100K–$250K

Card & tech systems$50K–$80K

Lease rate (NoVA strip)$28–$45/SF

Manassas lease rate$18–$28/SF

Cost per SF$150–$280/SF

Our deal — large-format premium

LaundryLux Electrolux equipment$918,977

Terryo construction bid$322,000

Plans, permits, contingency$172,598

Total gross project$1,403,574

Working capital~$96,000

Total (working model)~$1,500,000

Our cost per SF (4,576 SF)$327/SF

Why our $327/SF is at the top of the range — the three legitimate premiums

1. Premium equipment tier

Electrolux EED-series HE commercial machines cost $7,450–$19,898/unit. National averages use $1,500–$5,000 units. Our per-machine equipment cost ($18,977 avg including accessories and freight) is 4–6× the national norm. This is deliberate: Electrolux machines have 25% lower water use, run quieter, and command premium vend prices. In a $101K HHI market, customers pay for quality.

2. Premium NoVA construction costs

Northern Virginia construction costs run 25–40% above national averages. Terryo's $322K bid for 4,576 SF = $70/SF for labor and trades alone, not including equipment. Fairfax County permitting adds $45K. The $168/SF all-in renovation cost is in line with NoVA commercial build-out norms for a space requiring full plumbing, electrical, gas, and mechanical systems.

3. Scale premium (44 machines vs. 20–30 typical)

We're building a large-format store: 4,576 SF (2.1× national avg), 44 washers + 44 dryer doors (1.5–2.2× typical count). Fixed costs (card system, permits, plans, WC) don't scale linearly, so a 2× size store costs 1.5× typical in fixed overheads. The revenue upside (44 machines × $1,498/mo at 4.5T = $66K/mo) justifies the scale premium.

Low scenario

$1.3M

$284/SF

Mid scenario

$1.45M

$317/SF

High scenario

$1.5M

$328/SF

Verdict

Justified

for this size + market

Interactive model

Live P&L Calculator — Drag to Explore Your Scenario

Adjust turns per day and WDF volume to see real-time NOI, margin, and payback. Based on confirmed LOI occupancy ($244,221/yr), actual utilities, and Notion-verified vend prices.

Turns per day per washer4.0

1.5 distress2.9 current est.4.3 break-even5.5 strong8.0 IRS max

WDF volume (lb/day)200

0125250 target375500 lb

Gross rev

—

Total OpEx

—

NOI

—

NOI margin

—

After-debt CF

—

Payback (yrs)

—

Revenue

Washers ($7.82 avg)—

Dryers (40% of washers)—

WDF ($1.75/lb × 6d/wk)—

Vending + misc—

Gross—

Operating costs

Rent + CAM (LOI $244,221)$244,221

Utilities (actual bills scaled)—

Labor (3 FTE + 2 PT, WDF incl.)—

Maintenance + insurance$32,000

Card fees, supplies, mktg—

Total OpEx—

Move the sliders above.

Debt service: $167,208/yr (bank 9%) | $142,983/yr (PJ 7.99%). Using bank 9% for conservative calculation. Investment: $1,403,574 project. Labor model: 3 FTE (Floor Lead M-F, Floor/WDF M-F, WDF Lead Tue-Sat) + 2 PT weekend staff = ~$138K wages + 16% payroll taxes/workers comp = $160K/yr. At >300 lbs WDF/day adds 1 FTE driver = $206K/yr.

Financial model — Notion verified 2026-04-06

P&L Scenarios — With Industry Context

Three scenarios against industry benchmarks. All use confirmed Notion data: $7.82 avg vend, 40% dryer ratio, $244K/yr occupancy, actual utilities.

Break-even (bank 9%)

4.3T

PJ 7.99%: 4.0T

Bankable DSCR 1.25x

4.5T

Industry bankable standard

WDF at 150 lbs/day

+$76K/yr

Non-optional in Y1–2

Industry ROI target

20–35%

We hit this at 5.0T+

Monthly turns timeline — Nov 2026 through Mar 2030

Renovation Y1 ramp Y2 growth Y3 stabilized Break-even 4.3T Current store ~2.9T

5-Year P&L — No WDF (conservative baseline per Notion)

Year	Turns	Gross Rev	Occupancy	NOI	Debt Svc	Net CF	DSCR
Y1	3.5T + 5mo abatement	$615K	$142K	$157K	$167K	-$10K	0.94x
Y2	4.0T	$703K	$253K	$129K	$167K	-$38K	0.77x
Y3	4.5T	$791K	$262K	$195K	$167K	+$28K	1.16x
Y4	5.0T	$879K	$271K	$260K	$167K	+$93K	1.55x
Y5	5.0T	$879K	$280K	$251K	$167K	+$84K	1.50x
5-yr total						+$157K

5-Year P&L — With WDF $76K/yr (150 lbs/day @ $1.75/lb)

Year	Turns	Net CF (no WDF)	WDF Rev	Net CF (with WDF)	DSCR
Y1	3.5T+abate	-$10K	+$76K	+$66K	1.42x ✓
Y2	4.0T	-$38K	+$76K	+$38K	1.22x ~
Y3	4.5T	+$28K	+$76K	+$104K	1.61x ✓
Y4	5.0T	+$93K	+$76K	+$169K	2.00x ✓
Y5	5.0T	+$84K	+$76K	+$160K	1.95x ✓
5-yr total: +$157K			+$380K	+$537K total

Net cash flow by year (with WDF) vs. industry benchmark range

⚠ Y1–2 cash-flow negative without WDF. This is the deal's non-negotiable condition.

The Y1 abatement savings (~$102K cash) serve as the working capital buffer for Y2. The Y2 deficit (-$38K) is covered by holding this reserve. Partners should not distribute Y1 abatement savings. With WDF running from Day 1, every year is cash-flow positive. WDF is the margin of safety, not optional upside.

Equipment analysis

Machine Comparison — Wascomat vs. Electrolux vs. Speed Queen

Current store, our plan, and a future Speed Queen comparison (proforma pending). All three evaluated on water efficiency, revenue capacity, and total cost.

Current Store

Wascomat W-series

TypeNon-HE conventional

Load sensingNone

Water per cycle avg~55 gal

Cycle time~30–40 min

Machine life25–30 yr (CLA)

Est. age (Kevin's)10–20+ years

Vend price range$?? (cash only)

Card paymentNo

Water cost/yr est.~$31,000

Turns achieved~2.9T/day

Revenue capacity (40W)Limited by age

Used as reference only — Kevin's machines will be retired at lease transition.

Our Plan

Electrolux EED-series (LaundryLux)

TypeHE with Auto Savings

Load sensingYes (AS system)

Water per cycle avg~43 gal (real-world AS)

vs. Wascomat~22% less water

Machine life14–18 yr (CLA)

Machine mix9×30# + 15×45# + 10×65# + 10×85#

Vend price (confirmed)$4.75 / $6.75 / $9.00 / $11.00

Weighted avg vend$7.82

Card payment88 card readers included

Equipment cost (200G)$918,977 delivered

Revenue at 4.5T$791K/yr (W+D)

Financing (PJ)7.99% / 10yr

Primary scenario. 200G quote confirmed from PJ Jackson (LaundryLux). Also quoted: 450G at $159K premium for 30% faster dry times — see comparison note.

Coming Soon

Speed Queen (Hynes & Waller)

Proforma not yet received

Contact: Kevin Wilkerson
kevin.wilkerson@hynesandwaller.com
Layout already provided

TypeHard-mount commercial HE

Industry reputation★★★★★ Rated #1 durability

Machine life18–25 yr (Hard-mount)

Card integrationYes (LaundryBoss / WashConnect)

Equipment cost (est.)TBD — typically lower than Electrolux

FinancingTBD — manufacturer options

Once Speed Queen proforma arrives, we'll add a side-by-side comparison here covering equipment cost, per-machine ROI, and 10-year maintenance cost delta.

Electrolux 200G vs. 450G — is the $159K premium worth it?

Feature	200G (Primary Plan)	450G (Premium)	Delta
G-force extraction	200G	450G	—
Water removed per cycle	Standard	~30% more	Shorter dry time
Machine cost (44W + 22 stacked D)	$857,525	$1,016,867	+$159,342
Justified vend premium	Baseline	+$0.25/load	+~$15K/yr at 4.5T
Payback on premium	—	—	~10+ years
Customer benefit	Excellent	Faster turnaround	Marginal at this market
Recommendation			200G is the right choice. 450G premium doesn't justify 10-year payback in this market. Invest the $159K in WC, marketing, or contingency instead.

Advisor input

JAK Operator Comparison — 5 Laundromats, Manassas VA

JAK advisors filled in a standard industry proforma using their real-world operator experience. Key differences from our model are highlighted below. Per your note: utility numbers should be taken with a grain of salt — their formula doesn’t account for actual HE machine efficiency or our verified utility bills.

Key Assumption Differences

Assumption	JAK Model	Our Model	Delta	Which to use & why
30# washer vend	$6.00	$4.75	+$1.25	Use JAK. JAK annotates “6 to 6.25.” NoVA premium market supports this. $4.75 was Bubbles’ current price for aging machines.
45# washer vend	$7.00	$6.75	+$0.25	Use JAK. JAK annotates “7 to 8.” Minor difference but leaves room to grow to $8.
65# washer vend	$9.00	$9.00	—	Aligned. No change.
85# washer vend	$12.00	$11.00	+$1.00	Use JAK. Annotates “90 lb = $15–16, look at 100 lb SpeedQueen.” $12 on 85 lb Electrolux is reasonable for NoVA.
Avg vend (weighted)	$8.39	$7.82	+$0.57	+$41K/yr in washer revenue at 4.5T using JAK prices.
WDF lbs/day at 4.5T	50 lbs	200 lbs	−150 lbs	JAK is more realistic for launch. 200 lbs/day is mature-operation territory. JAK scales: 20→30→50→100→150 lbs as turns increase. Consider 50–75 lbs/day as a Year 1 WDF target.
Utilities method	15% of W+D = $127K	Bills + 7% var = $122K	Similar	Both are too high. Actual bills from current store (Wascomat ~55 gal/cycle): $58K/yr. New Electrolux HE machines (~15 gal/cycle) will use 70% less water. Real utility cost likely $65–85K/yr — significantly better than both models assume.
Labor at 4.5T	$13K/mo = $156K/yr	$160K/yr (flat)	−$4K	Effectively aligned. Both assume 3 FTE + PT staff. JAK scales by turn level ($12K→$15K/mo), ours is flat.
Financing	PJ 7.99%, $919K = $134K/yr	Bank 9%, $1.05M = $160K/yr	−$26K/yr	Get PJ term sheet in writing. JAK models PJ’s financing (equipment only, $919K at 7.99%). This is the bigger win — $26K/yr savings vs bank. Confirm before signing lease.

JAK Proforma — 4.5T / 50 lbs WDF / PJ 7.99%

Washer revenue (avg $8.39)$606,156

Dryer revenue (40%)$242,463

WDF (50 lbs/day × $1.75 × 30.42)$31,944

Total gross revenue$880,563

Utilities (15% of W+D)−$127,296

Rent + CAM−$244,224

Labor ($13K/mo)−$156,000

Insurance, trash, adv, supplies, misc−$68,100

Cash flow before debt$284,943

Note payment (PJ 7.99%, $919K, 10yr)−$133,742

Net income+$151,201

Our Model — 4.5T / 200 lbs WDF / Bank 9%

Washer revenue (avg $7.82)$564,849

Dryer revenue (40%)$225,940

WDF (200 lbs/day × $1.75 × 6d/wk)$109,200

Total gross revenue~$914,739

Utilities (actual bills + variable)−$122,032

Rent + CAM−$244,221

Labor (3 FTE + 2 PT flat)−$160,000

Maintenance, insurance, fees, misc−$91,458

Cash flow before debt$297,028

Note payment (bank 9%, $1.05M, 10yr)−$159,611

Net income+$137,417

What the JAK model tells us — 3 actionable takeaways

Price higher on Day 1

JAK’s 30# at $6 and 85# at $12 add $41K/yr in revenue at 4.5T with zero extra cost. NoVA market supports premium pricing. Update the opening price list before launch.

Be realistic on WDF ramp

JAK uses 50 lbs/day at 4.5T, not 200. Our 200 lb assumption is likely Year 2–3 territory. Model Year 1 WDF at 50–75 lbs/day ($32–48K revenue) and build from there. Don’t over-hire for WDF from Day 1.

Lock PJ’s rate in writing

JAK models on PJ Jackson’s 7.99% equipment financing ($919K). That’s $26K/yr less in debt service vs the bank at 9%. Get the term sheet from PJ before you sign the lease — this number materially changes your break-even math.

Utility caveat (your note is correct): Both models show ~$120–127K in utilities at 4.5T. The actual verified bills from the current store total ~$58K/yr — but those are Wascomat machines using ~55 gal/cycle. New Electrolux HE machines use ~15 gal/cycle (70% less water). Real utility cost for our store is likely $65–85K/yr, materially better than both models project. This is a hidden upside that improves NOI by $35–55K vs what either model shows.

Bottom line

Verdict — Is This Deal Worth It?

Honest assessment combining national benchmarks, DMV market context, confirmed Notion data, and current store forensics.

Location

Tier 1

Best possible in NoVA

Current turns

~2.9T

Below industry avg of 3–5

Required growth

+1.4T

2.9→4.3T to break even

WDF safety net

+$76K/yr

Day 1. Non-optional.

Y4+ cash flow

$169K/yr

With WDF, matches top quartile

Industry ROI target

Met Y4+

20–35% unlevered

5 reasons to proceed

1. Location quality is irreplaceable

Willston Centre I with 784K annual visits, 1,558 captive apartment units within 0.75 miles, Walk Score 90, exclusivity confirmed. This is a genuinely exceptional site by any national benchmark.

2. WDF demand is proven, not theoretical

21 of 67 reviews specifically praise Kevin's wash-and-fold. You inherit a real customer base on Day 1. Adding card payments + delivery expands it immediately.

3. $284,800 in concessions dramatically changes the economics

TI $183K + $101K abatement = effective net investment ~$1.22M (not $1.5M). Effective rent is $48.65/SF, not the nominal $53.37/SF. These are real economic wins.

4. Card payments = instant 25–35% volume lift on Day 1

Cash-only is the single biggest constraint on Kevin's revenue. CLA data: 55% of laundromats now take card — those that converted saw immediate volume increases. This is the lowest-risk revenue lever.

5. Industry success rate of 94–95% at this location tier

Laundromats have the highest 5-year survival rate of any small business. At a Tier 1 site with proven WDF demand and a modern equipment fleet, we are at the favorable end of that distribution.

5 conditions for go-ahead

1. Kevin Cheung contingency resolved — BINARY RISK

Entire deal is contingent on Regency recapturing Suite 5 from Kevin. Verify his lease status, renewal rights, and any holdover terms before committing capital. If Kevin renews, the deal is dead.

2. WDF operates from Day 1 — non-negotiable

Without WDF, Y2 is -$38K. WDF transforms Y2 from crisis to +$38K. Partners must commit to staffing and launching WDF on opening day. It is the margin of safety, not an add-on.

3. Verify water bill (due diligence)

Request all 4 quarterly bills. Take your own meter readings at open/close for 5 consecutive days. Hire a plumber to inspect for leaks. Confirm the water usage pattern matches seasonal demand, not a continuous leak.

4. Fix LOI blanks and guaranty language

"And options" in guaranty must be removed. Option 2 FMV language creates rent risk in year 16+. LOI blanks (escalation %, CAM cap %) must be filled before signing. Get PJ's 7.99% term sheet in writing.

5. Partners confirm equity capacity for mid/high scenario

Mid scenario ($1.45M) needs $445K equity vs. $400K committed — $45K gap. High ($1.5M) needs $490K. Partners must confirm maximum contribution before signing lease. Hold Y1 abatement as reserve, not distributions.

Final assessment

This is a genuine, executable investment opportunity in a Tier 1 location — but it is not a passive investment and it does not underwrite itself without execution. The $1.3–$1.5M investment is at the high end of the national laundromat range but fully justified by the equipment tier (Electrolux commercial), NoVA construction costs, large-format footprint (4,576 SF vs. 2,170 SF avg), and premium demographic market. The current store runs ~3.28T/day in winter (confirmed from 35 actual washers + water bill) — at the low end of the national industry average of 3–5T — because cash-only payments and aging Wascomat machines cap revenue. Upgrading to card payments, modern HE machines, and professional WDF eliminates those constraints. Growing to 4.3T is the break-even target — it requires execution, but the bottoms-up demand model (600 HH within 0.75 mi) and the competitive gap (no modern laundromat in ZIP 22044) support it. WDF is the margin of safety and must launch on Day 1. By Year 4–5, at 5.0T with WDF, the deal delivers $169K/year after debt service and a business valued at $1.0–$1.7M on a $1.22M net investment — meeting the industry's 20–35% ROI standard.

Transparency & verification

Sources, Methodology & What Was Assumed

Every claim in this report traces to one of three categories: verified primary source, industry research citation, or explicit estimate. If a number has no source below, it is an estimate and is labeled as such throughout the report.

Primary sources — verified first-hand data

Item	Source	Data extracted	Date	Verified?
Gas bill	Washington Gas — Kevin Cheung account, 6174 Arlington Blvd	$1,725.18 for Jan 23–Feb 20, 2026 (29 days). Annual est. ~$15,000/yr based on seasonal chart in bill showing ~2:1 winter:summer ratio.	Apr 2026	Verified
Electric bill	Dominion Energy — GS-2 Commercial, Kevin Cheung	$757 / 4,117 kWh for Feb–Mar 2026 (winter near-low). Peak Aug 2025: ~$1,582 / 8,603 kWh. Annual avg: ~$11,900/yr at $0.184/kWh effective rate.	Apr 2026	Verified
Water & sewer bill	Fairfax Water — Kevin Cheung, 90-day statement	557,000 gallons, Nov 11, 2025–Feb 9, 2026. Water: $4.03/kgal. Sewer: $9.33/kgal. Total: $7,748.52 for quarter = ~$31,000/yr.	Apr 2026	Verified
Equipment quote (Electrolux)	LaundryLux — PJ Jackson (pjackson@laundrylux.com, 419-966-8544). Bubbles-200G formal quote.	9×EED6030 ($7,450 ea), 15×EED6045 ($9,451 ea), 10×EED6065 ($12,917 ea), 10×EED6085 ($19,898 ea), 22×stacked dryers ($10,563 ea), Duncan Bulkhead $43,948, card readers $23,485, freight $10,000. Subtotal $867,525 pre-tax, $918,977 with 6% VA tax.	Mar 2026	Verified
Construction bid	Terryo's — Rodney (terodney2@aol.com, 301-877-1599). Estimate #1463.	Construction $98K, Electrical $48K, Plumbing $68K, Gas $12K, Mechanical $28K, Install/Rigging $68K. Total $322,000. Valid through May 26, 2026.	Mar 26, 2026	Verified
LOI terms	Regency Centers LOI, via KLNB (Beth Sargent, Jake Levin). LL rep: Jessica Sena (jessicasena@regencycenters.com)	$40/SF base rent, $13.37/SF CAM, 5% CAM cap, $40/SF TI ($183,040), 150-day rent commencement, 2×5yr options, exclusivity, hazmat-free delivery. All confirmed in final LOI 4/2/2026.	Apr 2, 2026	Verified
Current Bubbles vend prices	Kevin Cheung — confirmed current pricing at store	30lb: $4.75, 45lb: $6.75, 65lb: $9.00, 85lb: $11.00. Weighted avg: $7.82. Dryer ratio: 40% of washer revenue (LaundryLux industry standard).	Apr 2026	Verified
Notion deal tracker	Internal Notion database — Willston Centre I Deal Tracker. Pages: Main tracker, Market Research, Feasibility Model, Equipment Quotes, Utility Cost Analysis.	All financial parameters, LOI negotiation history, vendor contacts, 5-year P&L, machine mix, capital stack. Last updated 2026-04-06.	Apr 2026	Internal
Google Maps / reviews	Google Business profiles for all 8 competitors listed in Competition section	Ratings, review counts, hours, payment methods, WDF availability. All spot-checked April 2026.	Apr 2026	Verified
Wascomat W-series specs	Wascomat W75–W185 Installation & Operating Manual, Laundrylux part no. 471156274	Gallons per fill (7/10/14/20 gal) and fills per cycle (5) for each model. Used to revise turns-per-day calculation from 4.07T (wrong) to ~2.9T (corrected).	Referenced 2026	Verified
Electrolux EED specs	Electrolux EED-630/645/665/685 Product Data Sheets, Electrolux Professional, April 2026	Water per cycle at full load: 25/42/54/73 gal. Real-world with Automatic Savings (AS): ~22/37/47/64 gal. Weighted avg for our mix: ~43 gal/cycle.	Apr 2026	Verified
Traffic & foot traffic	Regency Centers property data — Willston Centre I	784,280 annual visits. 54,000 vehicles/day on Arlington Blvd (Route 50). Seven Corners Transit Center at site.	2025–2026	Verified

Industry research — external citations

Claim	Source	URL / reference	Notes
Turns/day range 3–8, national avg 5	Coin Laundry Association (CLA) — Valuation Guide (via Fulcrum Inquiry)	fulcrum.com/coinlaundry_appraisal/	CLA is the primary industry body. The "5 average" from CLA may reflect urban-weighted facilities. Source 10 (laundrymarketing.agency) puts typical at 3, high-performing at 4–6. We use the full range and flag the discrepancy.
Industry revenue $6.8B (2024)	IBISWorld Laundromats in the US Industry Analysis, 2026	ibisworld.com/united-states/industry/laundromats/1729/	CAGR 1.6% to reach $7.2B by 2026.
94–95% five-year success rate	Multiple: The Laundry Bag (presscleaners.com), martinray.com, trycents.com	presscleaners.com/blog/laundromat-statistics-2025/	Consistently cited across multiple industry sources. Original CLA source.
Profit margin 20–35%	martinray.com — Key Laundromat Industry Statistics; BizBuySell comp data	martinray.com / bizbuysell.com/learning-center/valuation-benchmarks/laundromats-coin-laundry/	BizBuySell: discretionary earnings margin rose to ~38% in 2022–23, fell ~13% in 2024, rebounded ~5% in 2025.
Valuation multiples 3–5× NOI	CLA (via fulcrum.com) + BizBuySell sold comps	laundryassociation.org/for-investors/industry-overview/	CLA states 3–5×. BizBuySell notes multiples rose sharply in 2025 on heightened demand.
National avg store size 2,170 SF	Coin Laundry Association, 2014 average	laundryassociation.org/for-investors/industry-overview/	2014 data — likely slightly larger by 2026, but no more recent CLA figure was publicly available.
Dryer income 40–60% of washers	CLA — valuation guide (Fulcrum Inquiry)	fulcrum.com/coinlaundry_appraisal/	We use 40% (low end) — conservative.
87% of customers live within 1 mile	CLA industry overview	laundryassociation.org/for-investors/industry-overview/	Standard proximity stat cited across multiple laundromat industry guides.
55% of laundromats now accept card/mobile	CLA 2024 report (via thelaundryboss.com)	thelaundryboss.com/laundromat-trends-in-2025-for-laundromat-owners/	Up from 30% in 2022. Supports the card-payment Day 1 volume lift thesis.
Revenue per machine: $800–$2,000/mo	CLA industry data (via laundryassociation.org)	laundryassociation.org/for-investors/industry-overview/	Our model at 4.5T: $1,498/machine/mo. Within range.
Startup cost $200K–$500K typical, up to $1.2M	NorthOne, Upwise Capital, The Laundry Boss, Nav — multiple sources	northone.com/blog/start-a-business/laundromat-cost; upwisecapital.com; nav.com	All sources converge on $200K–$500K national typical, with premium/large-format up to $1M+. Our $1.3–1.5M is at the high end of the documented range.
Cash flow $15K–$300K/yr (CLA)	CLA (via fulcrum.com valuation guide)	fulcrum.com/coinlaundry_appraisal/	Wide range reflects huge variation in store size, market, and service mix.
ZIP 22044 demographics	ACS 2024 (US Census Bureau American Community Survey)	census.gov (accessed via Notion market research page, 2026-03-31)	Population ~14K, 50% renter-occupied, 30% Hispanic/Latino, 82% pre-1970 housing (Seven Corners area), median HHI $101,034, poverty rate ~14%.
LaundryLux proforma radius data	LaundryLux proforma — PJ Jackson, March 2026	Internal document (provided by LaundryLux with equipment quote)	1-mile: 24,302 pop / 4,289 renter HH / $53,588 avg market/mo. 2-mile: 99,383 / 17,315 / $211,520. 3-mile: 231,045 / 42,995 / $502,479.
Fairfax Water rates	Fairfax Water Rate Schedule, effective April 1, 2025	fairfaxwater.org/rates	$4.03/kgal commodity. Fairfax County sewer: $9.33/kgal (7.5% increase approved April 1, 2026 — not yet reflected in Kevin's bills).
Development pipeline (Cavalier Club, Eakin)	Notion market research page, March–April 2026	Internal research + Fairfax County planning records	Cavalier Club +250 units: BoS vote May 5, 2026. Eakin Properties +450 units: rezoning filed Dec 2025, pending. West Falls: first tenants Sept 2024.

Estimates & assumptions — not verified, flagged throughout

Item	Assumed value	Basis	Risk if wrong
Current Bubbles washer count	~38–40 washers	Estimated from water bill analysis + "70+ machines" Google listing (washers + dryers combined). Not physically counted.	Moderate — turns/day calculation sensitive to this. Request exact count from Kevin Cheung during due diligence.
Wascomat model mix (W75/W105/W125/W185)	~55 gal/cycle avg	Based on typical mix for a 2,751 SF store from this era + Wascomat manual specs. Not inspected in person.	Moderate — affects turns estimate. Physical inspection will confirm. Range: 35–70 gal/cycle depending on model mix.
Gas annual estimate	~$15,000/yr	One winter bill ($1,725 for 29 days) × seasonal chart showing ~2:1 winter:summer ratio. Only one bill seen.	Low — gas is a smaller cost driver. Request full 12-month history to confirm.
Plans & permits cost	$45,000	Falls Church / Fairfax County estimate based on comparable projects. Not a bid — Terryo's estimate excludes permits.	Moderate — Fairfax County can be $30K–$75K depending on review complexity. Get permit fee schedule from county.
Working capital	~$96,000	Estimated to bring total to ~$1.5M working model. Actual WC needed depends on opening timeline and Y1 ramp speed.	Moderate — Y2 without WDF needs ~$38K bridge. Hold Y1 abatement as reserve.
Manassas demographics	~$62K HHI, ~55% Hispanic, ~40% renter	Training data estimate based on Census patterns for Prince William County. Not pulled from ACS 2024 directly.	Low — used only for relative comparison, not financial modeling.
Annual gas estimate (full year)	~$15,000/yr	Extrapolated from one winter bill. Request 12-month history from Kevin Cheung to confirm.	Low — direction of estimate is correct; precision matters less given gas is <10% of utilities.
WDF revenue ($76K/yr)	150 lbs/day × $1.75/lb × 6 days/wk × 52 wks	Kevin currently charges $1.50/lb. We assume $1.75 post-retool. Volume of 150 lbs/day is a ramp target, not Day 1 reality.	Moderate — WDF ramp takes 3–6 months. Model conservatively uses $76K full-year but actual Y1 WDF may be $40–60K.
Competitor payment types / WDF status	Varied — see Competition section	Google Maps listings, April 2026. Several competitors marked "Unknown" where info was unavailable online.	Low — competitive intelligence, not financial model inputs. Visit each store for physical confirmation.
NoVA construction cost premium	+25–40% over national	Industry knowledge of DC metro construction cost premium. Not based on a formal RS Means or similar cost index for this specific location.	Low — Terryo's actual bid ($322K) is the relevant number. The premium is contextual only.

What we could not verify — open due diligence items

Kevin Cheung's actual revenue

We do not have Kevin's tax returns, bank statements, or coin collection records. The water bill is our best proxy for utilization. His self-reported revenue has not been independently verified. This is the #1 due diligence item.

Plumbing / electrical infrastructure condition

We have not physically inspected the existing plumbing, electrical panel, gas lines, or floor drains. These could require $30K–$100K in additional work not captured in Terryo's bid. Hire licensed inspectors before closing.

Kevin Cheung's lease status

The entire deal is contingent on Regency recapturing Suite 5 from Kevin. We have not seen Kevin's current lease, its expiry date, renewal rights, or holdover terms. This is a binary deal risk.

Speed Queen proforma

Kevin Wilkerson (Hynes & Waller) provided a layout but not a price quote. Speed Queen comparison is marked as "Coming Soon" in the Machine section and will be added when received.

All 4 quarterly water bills

We only have Q4 2025 (winter). Summer bills are critical to confirm seasonal demand pattern and rule out a continuous leak. Request Q1–Q4 2025 before proceeding.

VA tax exemption eligibility

If Summit Operations Group LLC qualifies as tax-exempt for equipment purchases, the 6% VA tax ($51,452) is avoided. Confirm with Justin Griffin (vasmallbusinesslaw.com) before ordering equipment.